10 Global Climate

Global Climates

Chapters 10 and 11 (4CE)

Chapter 10 (3CE)

There is a brief video introduction here: http://youtu.be/iNEu61-Y8h0

Note:

- Climatology is the study of climate: long-term weather patterns.

- Climatologists can then identify climatic regions: places with similar climates.

You need to read the introductory sections in Chapter 10, up to and including the introduction to the “Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification System,” 4CE pp. 275-281 / 3CE pp. 262-273.

I. The Components of Climate

Climates are classified on the topics we have already discussed in the course:

A. Insolation

The amount of incoming solar radiation (insolation) a location receives will affect its climate. This is directly linked to latitude (Figure 2.9, (2.10; 3CE) Daily insolation received at the top of the atmosphere”)

B. Temperature

In Chapter 5 we discussed global temperatures. Temperatures are directly linked to insolation (latitude), altitude, cloud cover, and land-water heating differences.

C. Atmospheric Circulation and Air Masses

The dominant winds, ocean currents and air masses affecting an area will influence its climate.

D. Precipitation

The amount and type of precipitation in a region will affect its climate.

Obviously these four factors do not operate independently!

Temperature is directly linked to insolation.
Precipitation is directly lined to global circulation patterns, land/water location, and air masses.
Air masses are directly related to a location’s proximity to land/water.

For instance, global circulation patterns create regions like the sub-tropical high pressure regions (around the tropics). These circulation patterns cause dry, sunny, warm conditions. These conditions, in turn, create a hot, arid climate.

Some of the major climatic forces are ocean currents. The most commonly known are El Nino and La Nina. Read Focus Study 10-1, “The El Nino Phenomenon…” 3CE pp .266-267 / 2CE pp. 289-291. I may ask for a brief definition of either current on an exam.

For more information on El Nino see: El Niño

on La Nina see: La Niña

II. Classifying Climate

Places around the world are most often grouped into climatic regions using the Köppen-Geiger Classification System. This system uses statistical data to group places with similar climatic conditions into larger categories.

The Köppen-Geiger system uses a series of two or three letters to summarize the climate of any region in the world (See 4CE figure 10.2 / 3CE figure 10.6, “World climates according to the Köppen-Geiger classification system,” 4CE pp. 280-281 / 3CE pp. 272-273.

The first letter, capitalized from A to E, roughly gives the latitude from the equator:

A: Tropical regions (warm, equatorial regions)

B: Dry and warm climates (often associated with the sub-tropical highs: Southwestern U.S., Mexico, Sahara Desert, Middle East, Australian outback)

C: Mesothermal regions (“medium” warm: west coast, southern U.S., western Europe, Argentina, China)

D: Microthormal regions (a “little” warm: most of Canada, Midwest/NE U.S., Russia)

E: Polar regions (cold!: Arctic Islands, northern Siberia)

Also:

H: Highland climates (alpine areas like the Rockies, Andes, Alps, Himalayas, which can occur at any latitude)

The second and sometimes third letters, usually non-capitalized, subdivide each broad category according to specific temperature and moisture conditions. See your text for more details.

A climograph is used to show the climate for a particular location. It includes information like:

(No, you don’t have to memorize these! Just know the TYPE of information presented!)

Skim the various types of climates and climographs from Tropical Rain Forest Climates (4CE p. 282 / 3CE p. 271) to the end of that section (4CE p. 300 / 3CE p. 294). Do not worry about trying to learn all of this! In your lab you will have the opportunity to work with this information a bit!

III. Climate Change (4CE Chapter 11, 3CE Chapter 10, pp. 294-304)

NOTE: we will use the term "climate change" rather than "global warming." This is a more comprehensive -- and accurate term. Global climates are changing ... warming is just one indicator of this in many parts of the world. The bigger issue is CHANGE. While climates may be getting warmer in some areas, the bigger issues may be more frequent and more violent storms, less or more precipitation (annually or seasonally), greater (or less) wind, etc. For instance, extended hot-dry periods during the summers on the west coast (2015) and exceptionally nasty winter storms on the east coast (2015) may exemplify climate change - in the latter case not necessarily warming!

The BEST online introduction to all topics related to climate change is The Guardian, a UK news service:

The U.N. World Meteorological Organization's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the world's premier peer-reviewed scientific authority on climate change, with several thousand atmospheric scientists involved. They most recently held a conference in March 2009, before the UN Conference on Climate Change, in December 2009. The IPCC Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions highlighted that:

The debate about climate change among scientists -- if it ever really existed -- has long been over. The (very few, about 3%) nay-sayers do not deny change is occurring, but may debate the relative effect of human activity.

It should be noted that several of the most outspoken critics of human-induced climate change have recently been exposed as having been on the payroll of major corporations (see Sheldon Kamieniecki’s, Corporate America and Environmental Policy: How Often Does Business Get Its Way? (San Francisco: Stanford University Press, 2006). Kamieniecki also highlights how several major polluting corporations hired the same media relations companies as large tobacco companies to try to sway public opinion in their favor. Interesting.

A few papers have questioned the often cited "97% consensus" among climate scientists that climate change is happening, likely caused by human activities. A new survey in the journal Environmental Research Letters of over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers, the most comprehensive survey of its kind, found that just over 4,000 papers took a position on the cause of global warming, 97.1% of which endorsed human-caused global warming. The survey found that the consensus has grown slowly over time, and reached about 98% as of 2011. The results are also consistent with several previous surveys finding a 97% consensus amongst climate experts on the human cause of global warming (see Survey finds 97% climate science papers agree warming is man-made | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | The Guardian, see also Richard Tol accidentally confirms the 97% global warming consensus ). Those papers which challenge this consensus tend to have ideological biases or methodological issues.

Over the past few years Canada has gone from being a respected and constructive contributor to reducing greenhouse gases to becoming an international pariah on environmental issues, accused of "letting its neighbour (the U.S.) decide its policies ..." and "Canada has shown a legally binding deal does not guarantee countries won't walk away from their commitments ..."

"Canada has become an 'outcast amongst its negotiating peers' at recent UN climate summits," said Liz Gallagher head of the Climate Diplomacy Programme at E3G, a UK-based NGO. "It’s a travesty that a prosperous country with such a rich history of international cooperation is now turning its back on the world,"

"Canada does well at many things. Earlier this year (2014), Canadian cities were listed among the world's top places to live. The country ranks high with the best when it comes to wealth and it's been praised for emerging from the financial crisis in decent shape. But there's one category in which Canada ranks dead last among industrialized nations: its efforts to combat climate change. "The Climate Change Performance Index," published annually by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe, lists Canada among the world's worst at no. 58 ... Only Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia were ranked worse in the index." (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/10/21/canada-climate-change-ranking-oecd-report_n_6024844.html)

You may not want to have that Canada Flag badge on your backpack overseas anymore!

Earth's climate has changed naturally (and very slowly) over time. The science of studying past climates is called paleoclimatology. The text goes into methods for long-term and short-term climate reconstruction and histories in great detail (4CE, pp. 310-318) - skim this, but you do not need to know it for the exam. It may give you some help in understanding how scientists assess climate is actually changing today.

1. Solar variability - the sun's output of energy toward earth changes over time. Overall it is increasing. It also varies on an approximately 11-year cycle related to sunspot activity (tit is greatest when their are the most amount of sunspots. There are also approximate 70 year cycles of reduced sunspot activity (a time of global cooling). Actual observed results of global temperatures suggest that these historic trends are no longer holding true. 2005-2010, a time of low sunspot activity SHOULD have been a cool period, but instead were very warm, suggesting other effects are shaping climate (see NASA Earth's Energy Budget Remained Out of Balance Despite Unusually Low Solar Activity

a. The Earth's orbit is not a perfect circle, but an ellipse, meaning at times the Earth is closer to the sun and at times it is further away.

b. Earth's axis "wobbles" meaning that at times one hemisphere is more tilted toward the sun than the other.

c. The tilt of the Earth's axis varies from 21.5 - 24.5 degrees. Currently it is 23.5 degrees.

3. Continental positions and topography - long-term changes in the relative amount/shape of land and oceans can affect climate (see text)

4. Atmospheric gases and aerosols - naturally occurring changes in the composition of the atmosphere can affect climate. For instance volcanic eruptions tend to produce much atmospheric dust, blocking incoming solar energy, which can lead to global cooling. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), cause by burning of (presently or formerly) living organism - e.g. forest fires burning large expanses of trees - has the net effect of raising global temperatures. Increased water vapour in the atmosphere also increases global temperatures.

1. Temperature - Global warming gases have hit record levels in the world's atmosphere, with concentrations of carbon dioxide up 39 percent since the start of the industrial era in 1750 (see CTV News - UN: Concentrations of greenhouse gases hit record). CO₂ is the greenhouse gas of greatest concern to policy makers looking to stem human-induced climate change: fossil fuel-burning, loss of forests that absorb CO2 and use of fertilizer are the main culprits. Levels of methane - considered the second most important greenhouse gas - have risen after a period of relative stabilisation from 1999 to 2006. This could be due to the thawing of the Northern permafrost and increased emissions from tropical wetlands. Nitrous oxide, emitted into the atmosphere from natural and man-made sources, including biomass burning and fertiliser use, was 323.2 parts per billion in 2010 - 20% higher than in the pre-industrial era. Read the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin GHGbulletin.html.

HFCs (Hydrofluorocarbons), a popular choice by refrigeration manufacturers of because they are are deemed to be a "like-for-like" replacement substance for ozone-depleting Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrofluorochlorocarbons (HCFCs) are also dramatically increasing in the atmosphere -- and are potent greenhouse gases .(BBC News - Climate concerns as ‘ozone-friendly’ HFCs use grows). HFCs are much more potent global warming agents than carbon dioxide: Global Warming Potentials

While many politicians and media types (for various political reasons) may question the reality of climate change, it is a bit like those who argued the earth was flat back in Columbus' day. The scientific evidence is overwhelming.

Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at high latitudes, with some models predicting rises of 10 degrees Celsius in the next 100 years in the Arctic. This has dramatic consequences for permafrost, ecosystems, structural engineering, and transportation (e.g. ice highways)

The issue is not that change is happening. The real challenge is coming to terms with the changes.

a. Glacial Ice - Glaciers, perennially frozen water, have been in retreat for decades. This has all sorts of ecological and even economic implications

b. Sea Ice - Sea ice is declining at 11% per decade, which has major environmental implications. Sea ice is expected to decrease, with some projections predicting late-summer Arctic sea ice to disappear entirely by 2030. 2011 had the second lowest level of Arctic sea ice recorded (the lowest was 2007) -- overall these are the lowest levels in several thousand years.

3. Sea Level Rise - UN Reports suggest that global warming and rising sea levels will continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions are slowed or reduced. We will likely experience a temperature increase of about 0.5 degrees by 2025 regardless of what we do, but the increases start to diverge depending on the levels of emissions when you look a hundred years from now. The report predicts average temperature increases of 1.8 to four degrees by the year 2100. On sea levels, the report projects a rise of 17.8 centimeters to 58.4 centimeters by the end of the century. An additional rise between 9.9 to 19.8 centimeters is possible if the recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues ("It's not like Las Vegas. What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic." -- Dr. Walter Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Centre)

A rise of similar size is projected to come from a combination of melt water from mountain glaciers and thermal expansion of seawater.

Other studies suggest this may be a conservative estimate. In spring, 2011, Dr. Eric Rignot from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, and other authors published a study suggesting that glacial melt is higher than previously thought. The Greenland and Antarctic sheets were losing a combined mass of 475Gt (gigatonnes - billion tonnes) of ice per year in 2006; loss from the Greenland sheet is increasing by nearly 22Gt per year, while the much larger and colder Antarctic sheet is shedding an additional 14.5Gt each year. If these increases persist, water from the two polar ice sheets could add 15cm (5.9 inches) to the average global sea level by 2050 and 59 cms by 2100. (BBC News - Polar ice loss quickens, raising seas).

However sea levels not only rise from more water, but as water temperature increases, so does the volume it occupies -- it expands. This will double the overall sea level rise to 1-2 metres by 2100. For countries like Bangladesh, eastern China, and Thailand (and even cities like Halifax, Charlottetown, and Richmond/Surrey/Delta, BC) at sea level, this has profound consequences! The BC government has warned builders and developers to plan for a 1 m sea level rise over the next 90 years (B.C. warned ocean will rise by 1 metre by 2100 - British Columbia - CBC News).

4. Extreme Events - Globally, extreme weather events and their effects are anticipated to increase

a. Precipitation is very likely to move toward the poles, with an increase at higher latitudes and a decrease in subtropical regions.

b. Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation are highly likely to become more frequent.

c. Hurricanes/typhoons are likely to become more intense, and may become more frequent.

a. Acidification in oceans: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (up almost 40% since the pre-industrial age) will lead to increasing acidification of the ocean.

6. Social and Economic Impacts: all of this has huge social, cultural, and economic costs -- for nations and individuals

On a global scale these will have dramatic impacts that will, inevitably, affect Canada -- we are part of a global community!

These are not "other people's problems." They will become all of ours! Do they have ethical issues for Christians? What are the implications for missions? These are questions the Christian community must begin to take seriously!

One interesting study notes that Richer Canadians emit far more greenhouse gases than lower income people: "The richest 20 per cent of Canadian households spew almost twice — 1.8 times — the greenhouse-gas emissions of the country's lowest income-earners ... The report says the top one per cent of households had emissions three times the average and almost six times those of households in the bottom 10 per cent ... The report's author, economist Marc Lee, says the rich can reduce emissions — taking steps like cutting air travel and investing in home energy efficiency — more easily than low-income families, without affecting basic needs. Lee says climate policies have to be fair to be effective, and he contends high-income Canadians should bear the greater burden of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions." Are there some justice issues we need to wrestle with here?

In Canada, the federal government has backed away from taking leadership on climate change issues. The federal government website used to be a great resource on research, management, and mitigation strategies. Now the federal website has no information at all on climate change (don't even bother checking it out - it's a waste of time: Environment Canada - Climate Change - Climate Change). Apparently the Government of Canada no longer considers climate change a topic worthy of webspace. Make of that what you will.

Several of the provinces - especially B.C., Ontario, and Quebec - are VERY proactive. Their websites are much more helpful!

The costs to Canada -- in terms of effects on key industries (like forestry), land flooded, dwelling damages, and health problems/deaths from air quality and temperature changes -- are huge:

"As a northern nation, Canada is a key barometer for climate change. Over the past 50 years, average temperatures in this country have risen by 1.2°C, almost twice the global rate. The Mackenzie Basin in the Northwest Territories is one of three climate hot spots in the world, along with Lake Baikal in Siberia and northwestern Alaska.

"After decades of debate, the world’s scientific community generally agrees that the winds of climate change are sweeping our planet. But what does “climate change” really mean?

"Changes in the Earth’s climate are a natural and cyclical phenomenon. Historically, the climate has fluctuated between warmer and colder conditions, such as the ice ages. The greenhouse effect — the rise in temperature on Earth when gases in the atmosphere, such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, trap and reflect heat back toward the Earth’s surface — is also a natural occurrence. Without it, the average temperature on Earth would be a frigid -18°C.

"Daily human activities, such as burning fossil fuels to drive our cars or heat and cool our homes, are precipitating changes in these natural systems. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are intensifying the greenhouse effect, which may cause the planet to warm up at a rate never before experienced in human history. It is already resulting in changing weather patterns worldwide and more frequent extremes in weather, such as hurricanes and droughts. Global warming, which strictly means an increase in the world’s mean temperature, is often defined under popular usage as warming caused by human activity.

"The changing climate is also altering the Canadian landscape and will touch Canadians in every aspect of their lives, from ski conditions to air quality. This thematic highlights major shifts and what the future may hold in Canada’s five main regions, taking into account the degree of uncertainty in climate change projections. It also broaches the question of how Canadians will have to adapt to their changing surroundings."

Warming on average in Canada would increase four to six degrees Celsius, with a smaller change in the south and an increase of 10 degrees in the north (over the next century).

Environment Canada has completed a an assessment of the social, biological and economic impacts of climate change on the different regions of Canada. Climate experts from government, industry, academia and non-government organizations were brought together to review existing knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation, identify gaps in research, and suggest priority areas where new knowledge is urgently needed.

Some observed impacts of changing climate on physical and biological systems in Canada
	Glacier cover – mass and area; widespread reductions with local variability	widespread retreat since late 1800s in western Canada, since 1920s in Arctic glaciers in BC are currently retreating at rates unprecedented in the last 8000 years estimated loss of ice mass in Canadian Arctic of 25 km3/a for period 1995–2000
	Snow cover – reduced annual extent and duration	10% decrease in extent in Northern Hemisphere for period 1972–2003 decrease of 20 days in duration of snow cover in Arctic since 1950
	Sea-, lake- and river-ice cover – reduced extent and duration	3% per decade decrease in annual average area of sea ice in Northern Hemisphere for period 1978–2003 reduction of ice cover season on Great Lakes by 1–2 months during past 150 years
	Permafrost conditions – warming and deepening of annual thaw layer	most significant warming in western Arctic 1°C increase in surface permafrost temperature since 1990 in northern Quebec increase in summer thaw penetration in the 1990s
	River and lake levels – changes in water levels and timing of peak flow events	decline in summer and fall runoff in Prairies, leading to lower lake and river levels at those times trend towards earlier spring runoff
	Plant phenology – events occurring earlier	26-day shift to earlier onset of spring over the past century in Alberta 5–6 day advance since approximately 1959 in the onset of phenological spring in eastern North America
	Plant productivity– lengthening growing seasons and increased productivity	greater productivity rates of spruce and poplar in Quebec lengthening of growing season for crop production
	Distribution of some animal species – northward or upslope shifts in terrestrial ecosystems, shifts towards warmer thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems	increasing abundances of cool and warm water fish species relative to cold water species
	Coastal erosion – enhanced as a result of decreased ice cover, sea-level rise, increased storminess, and non-climatic factors	accelerated erosion and degradation of the dunes and coastline throughout the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, northeastern Prince Edward Island and southwestern, western and eastern Newfoundland

One issue in the news recently is the decreased potential electrical-generation energy available from hydro-electric dams. Bridge Glacier, in BC, which supplies dams producing the 3rd largest amount of hydro-electric energy in the province, is retreating 200m per year. This has already reduced the amount of water available for hydro-electric power generation. The amount of electricity potentially available from hydro-electricity in BC will only continue to shrink -- even as demand for electricity increases.

Here are some of the highlights of regional reports (non-italicized portions from Environment Canada, italicized selections from Royal Canadian Geographical Society):

British Columbia/Yukon/Rockies

Significant impacts in British Columbia and the Yukon would include increased flood dangers in some areas, drought in others, and widespread disruption to forests, fisheries and wildlife.

Sea levels are expected to rise up to 30 cm on the north coast of British Columbia and up to 50 cm on the north Yukon coast by 2050, mainly due to warmer ocean temperatures. This could cause increased sedimentation, coastal flooding and permanent inundation of some natural ecosystems, and could place low-lying homes, docks and port facilities at risk.

"The expected rise in sea level, caused by melting glaciers and the expansion of ocean waters as they warm, will affect parts of coastal British Columbia, particularly in the Fraser Delta and portions of Vancouver, Victoria and the Queen Charlotte Islands. The heavily populated Fraser Delta is one of the most vulnerable regions on the Pacific Coast since parts of the lowlands already sit below sea level and are protected from flooding by an extensive dyke system. Rising seas could drown tidal marshes, havens for waterfowl, shorebirds and salmon fry. They could also flood prime farmland, industrial and residential urban areas. The intrusion of salt water would affect groundwater supplies.

"Climatologists predict that winters in coastal British Columbia will be wetter and stormier. In a region defined by mountains, that means unstable slopes and more frequent landslides. Heavy rains can unleash “debris flows,” a sodden mixture of mud, gravel and boulders barrelling down steep mountain stream courses. In November 2006, torrential rains washed silt into Greater Vancouver’s water supply, making tap water murky and undrinkable for about two million residents." (http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/atlas/themes.aspx?id=climate&sub=climate_landscapes_britishcolumbia&lang=En)

Prairies

Current models suggest that climate change could result in increased air temperatures and decreased soil moisture. Most scenarios suggest that the semi-arid regions of the Prairies can expect an increase in the frequency and length of droughts.

"After Canada’s North, the southern Prairies are the region most affected by the shifting climate. Since the 1940s and early 1950s, the length of the growing season on the Prairies has grown by approximately 10 to 15 days. There is less snow cover and spring runoff begins earlier. Most climate change models suggest that the semi-arid zones of the Prairies will be more prone to drought as the weather warms. Grasslands and aspen parkland of the southern Prairies could expand northward, in tracts now occupied by the boreal forest.

"Glaciers along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, which feed rivers throughout the Prairies, have shrunk by an average of 25 percent over the last century, reducing downstream flows. Total glacial cover is nearing the lowest level in 10,000 years. If glaciers continue to shrink, it will exacerbate water shortages and drought, particularly in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan." (http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/atlas/themes.aspx?id=climate&sub=climate_landscapes_praries&lang=En)

Arctic

Temperature changes will be most notable near the poles -- a rise of 6-10 degrees C within the next century is realistic.

"The Canadian Arctic is on the front lines of global warming. The North and its residents have been aptly described as the “early warning system for the entire planet.” Indeed, temperatures in the Western Arctic are among the fastest rising on Earth. Over the past 40 years, average temperatures in the Mackenzie Basin have increased by 1.5°C; by the second half of the 21st century, scientists predict temperatures in the Northwest Territories will be at least 5°C warmer than they are now.

"The very essence of the land of snow and ice is melting away. The polar ice cap has been shrinking at a rate of nine percent per decade since the 1970s, according to recent NASA estimates. If this trend continues, some scientists say the summer sea ice cover may completely disappear by the end of the century. Others say it could happen as early as 2050. Meanwhile, an ancient ice shelf tore away from Ellesmere Island in 2005, creating a 66-square-kilometre island. Scientists suspect the breakup was caused by global warming.

"Sea ice in the Arctic is not only shrinking in size, it is getting thinner. More open water means stronger waves lapping at the shoreline and causing destructive erosion, particularly along the Beaufort Sea coast. Erosion and rising sea levels are already threatening Tuktoyaktuk, a major shipping port in the Canadian Arctic.

"Much of the land in Canada’s northern reaches is underlain by permafrost, ground that remains frozen year-round. In recent years, melting permafrost has altered the landscape, turning parts of the hard tundra into swampy, shifting ground and increasing the risk of landslides. This is having a serious impact on many aspects of northern life, from the safety of ice roads to the instability of buildings, airstrips, pipelines and municipal water supply." (http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/atlas/themes.aspx?id=climate&sub=climate_landscapes_north&lang=En)

In the past 100 years, the Mackenzie district has warmed by 1.5°C and the Arctic tundra area by 0.5°C, while the Arctic mountains and fjords of the eastern Arctic have cooled slightly. Future winter temperature increases of 5-7°C over the mainland and much of the Arctic Islands and modest cooling in the extreme eastern Arctic are projected. Summer temperatures are expected to increase up to 5°C on the mainland, and 1-2°C over marine areas. Annual precipitation is expected to increase up to 25%.

These changes in temperature and precipitation would have dramatic effects on tundra and taiga/tundra ecosystems, reducing them by as much as two thirds. More than one half of the discontinuous permafrost area could disappear, with marked surface instability in the short term.

Wildlife would also be affected, with many species of fish and streams shifting northward 150 km for each degree increase in air temperature and High Arctic Peary caribou, muskoxen and polar bears running the risk of extinction.

Climate change would also extend the shipping season in the Arctic, while rising sea levels in the Beaufort Sea areas would endanger coastal infrastructure.

Ontario

Ontario could experience anywhere from 3-8°C average annual warming by the latter part of the 21^st century, leading to fewer weeks of snow, a longer growing season, less moisture in the soil, and an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts.

As well, water levels in the Great Lakes could decline to record lows by the latter part of the 21^st century, reducing shipping capacity.

"Low water levels are a major concern along the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River, the urban and industrial heartland of Canada. (One-quarter of Canada’s population lives in the Great Lakes region and nearly half of the country’s industries are based there, while more than 70 percent of Quebec’s population lives along the St. Lawrence.) Climate models predict that by 2050 lake levels could be lower by more than one metre.

"Lower water levels would have a significant impact on a variety of economic activities, from hydro power production to tourism. Maintaining navigability on the St. Lawrence Seaway could require more dredging. Shipping costs would increase as ships would have to make more trips with lighter loads. Wetlands could dry out, affecting wildlife and fisheries. Water quality may deteriorate as warmer water temperatures create a favourable environment for microbes and algal blooms." (http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/atlas/themes.aspx?id=climate&sub=climate_landscapes_ontarioquebec&lang=En)

Quebec

If carbon dioxide levels were to double, Quebec would experience average temperature increases of 1-4°C in the south and 2-6°C in the north. Precipitation would likely remain the same or decrease slightly in the south, while increasing 10-20% in the north.

Atlantic

Climate change in the Atlantic region has not followed the national warming trend of the past century, and, in fact, a slight cooling trend has been experienced over the past 50 years. This trend is consistent with projections by climate models.

Atlantic Canada is particularly vulnerable, however, to rising sea levels, whose impacts could include greater risk of floods, coastal erosion, coastal sedimentation, and reductions in sea and river ice.

Many coastal communities are within a few metres of sea level -- a rise of up to a meter in sea level would have dramatic consequences.

"On the East Coast, climate change may intensify an existing problem of rising sea levels due to the sinking of the Earth’s crust. Much of Nova Scotia, for instance, is steadily subsiding. Sea levels at the Bay of Fundy are rising by about 40 centimetres per century. More than 80 percent of the coastlines of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island — including the cities of Charlottetown and Saint John, N.B. — are considered moderately to highly sensitive to flooding and erosion caused by the rising sea. Coastal bluffs are retreating, some up to 12 metres in a year. Tidal salt marshes, which are critical ecosystems, could be submerged as well as dykes protecting areas that are currently below the high tide mark.

"Tourism will bear the brunt of the changing climate if popular natural attractions, such as coastal dunes on the north shore of Prince Edward Island and icebergs along the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, are altered. The combined effects of rising sea levels, decreased sea ice and increased wave action could ruin the dunes. Icebergs, which normally melt in warmer waters near the southern fringe of the Grand Banks, would disappear farther north. This would be bad news for tourism operators in Newfoundland, but likely welcomed by the oil industry, which must maintain expensive engineering on its offshore oil production platforms to deal with iceberg collisions." (http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/atlas/themes.aspx?id=climate&sub=climate_landscapes_atlantic&lang=En)

We tend to think of climate change in strictly negative terms. However, there could also be positive aspects. An independent federal policy advisory agency called the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) has tried to consider a range of possible impacts, risks and opportunities.

The Degrees of Change diagram summarizes the impacts of climate change on Canada in eight distinct categories, including such subjects as water resources and communities and infrastructure. What emerges is a unique picture of what could happen as average annual global temperatures increase up to 5°C higher than they were prior to industrial times.

Our future will depend on how we anticipate and plan for the risks and opportunities associated with climate change.

Read the section in your text entitled, “Global Climatic Change,” 4CE pp. 300-303 / 3CE pp. 294-303. We have already discussed some of these issues. However there is much more information here.

For further information on possible rising sea levels as a consequence of global warming, see: David Schneider, “The Rising Seas,” Scientific American, March 1997, pp. 112-117.

The increase in woody vegetation has accelerated over the last 50 years because woody patch growth increases in a compound fashion. Such a non-linear pattern of woody increase has contributed to the erroneous belief that buffalo were the cause of the woody growth on the previously treeless floodplains - in fact the analysis showed that the buffalo control programme merely coincided with the dramatic expansion of woody plants.

The study is important as it shows the pervasive effects of global change on regional ecosystems. The expansion of woody plants is degrading wildlife habitat quality of Kakadu National Park's iconic wetlands, particularly for water-birds that need treeless conditions. The upside, however, is that the park is capturing carbon in the woody growth. However, these effects may be transitory, as the IPCC's recent climate change assessment has identified the Kakadu freshwater floodplains as being at risk of destruction due to sea level rise during this century.

Source paper: Bowman, D. M. J. S., Riley, J. E., Boggs, G. S. , Lehmann, C. E. R. & Prior, L. D. (2008) "Do feral buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) explain the increase of woody cover in savannas of Kakadu National Park, Australia?" Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.01934.x.

Monks' diaries aid understanding of 500 years of climate change
The Associated Press. Date: Monday Jan. 17, 2011 12:46 PM ET

LONDON — Centuries-old monks' diaries are helping scientists understand and predict climate change, according to a new study.

A leading research institute on environomental issues from a Christian perspective is the Au Sable Institute of Environmental Studies. Their are many resources on their website.

Katherine Hayhoe (a Canadian and a Christian), associate professor in the Department of Political Science and director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University, is one of the leading contributors to this discussion. She is also also the founder and CEO of ATMOS Research, where we bridge the gap between scientists and stakeholders to provide relevant, state-of-the-art information on how climate change will affect our lives to a broad range of non-profit, industry and government clients. A great 3-part video series with Katharine Hayhoe a climate scientist and evangelical Christian (and Canadian) is here: Katharine Hayhoe: Evangelical Christian, Climate Scientist | The BioLogos Forum. Faith Today recently published an article on Dr. Hayhoe, as well: Faith Today - Jan/Feb 2015 - Page 42-43. There is also an online lecture "The non-political truth about climate change and a Christian response" Audio. See her full bibliography here: Katharine Hayhoe - Google Scholar Citations

Read "Mitigating Climate Change" in your Text (4CE p. 339). What can you do personally?

The US Environmental Protection Agency has some great practical ideas (the Government of Canada used to have comparable information; since 2010 it has all been deleted ... odd?):

1. Sir John Houghton, former IPCC council member and Christian layperson, describes the dramatic changes that climate change will bring to Africa. How will Climate Change impact Africa? - YouTube

2. In an online article entitled, "Climatology Reveals Creation Clues," Susan Hanks Mowen profiles Kevin Birdwell. Here are some interesting excerpts:

"By day, climatologist Kevin Birdwell seeks answers to mysteries of human history via climatological records. By night, he uses that research to enhance his teaching at a Christian college. Studying ancient weather at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee intrigues Birdwell “because it reveals so much about the intricacies of Earth’s ability to support life." And, the way these discoveries affirm the Christian faith stimulates his enthusiastic pursuit of more new evidence.

"Some people think climate change is a modern phenomenon, but it's not." Birdwell's passion and curiosity become contagious as he discusses one of the great mysteries of climatology. "Around 4,100 years ago a major discontinuity appeared when the entire tropical climate system around the world appears to have shut down. The land around the Mediterranean Sea used to have a lot of trees, but it became mostly rocky hills. Egyptians saw the Nile dry up and the Sahara grasslands where hippos once roamed turned into the Sahara Desert. The Old Testament mentions of major droughts such as the one of Joseph’s era (Gen. 41-47), among others, seem consistent with this paleoclimate evidence. Dramatic climate change provides a powerful time marker in Earth’s history."

"Archaeology uncovers additional evidence for the Christian faith. “During the ice age, at least 11,000 years ago, sea levels were as much as 200 feet lower, which means a lot more land was exposed. Humans likely settled along those coasts, which are now under water." Exploration of such inaccessible areas is costly, but if it takes place, Birdwell believes scientists will gain some significant Bible-affirming data about human history.

"Such discoveries often validate the Bible’s statements. The more I get into the study of climate and its history, the more I find out about human history and how it fits into the biblical story."

"To further enhance his knowledge and goals, Birdwell is currently working toward a University of Tennessee (UT) Ph.D. in geography with specialties in climatology, environmental geography, and air quality. “I have talked about divine design evidences with professors and fellow students. Although many of them are committed to a naturalistic viewpoint, several have been impressed with the data I present,” Birdwell said. “One of the most-encouraging comments I received came from an evolutionary biology major who said he would have to think about these matters. Given his depth and perspective, that meant a lot.”

"Climatology continues to provide evidence for God’s wisdom and power, increasing Birdwell’s appreciation for the creation and Creator. And, that appreciation keeps him busy sharing with others how science fits with Scripture."

This page is the intellectual property of the author, Bruce Martin, and is copyrighted © 2014 by Bruce Martin. This page may be copied or printed only for educational purposes by students registered in courses taught by Dr. Bruce Martin. Any other use constitutes a criminal offence.

Scripture quotations marked (NLT) are taken from the Holy Bible, New Living Translation, copyright © 1996. Used by permission of Tyndale House Publishers, Inc., Wheaton, Illinois 60189. All rights reserved